Bitcoin Halving 2024: What miners really earn
In April 2024 the block reward fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Two years later the damage can be quantified soberly. Anyone paying more than $0.07/kWh for power has been in the red since 2025. Anyone below $0.04 has held or expanded their margin.
The math after the halving
A modern ASIC (Antminer S21, 200 TH/s, 17.5 J/TH) consumes around 3,500 watts. At a BTC price of $95,000 and a global hashrate of 720 EH/s, daily revenue per machine in Q1 2026 is roughly $11.
At $0.08/kWh, running the same machine costs $6.72 per day. That leaves $4.28. From that, personnel, maintenance, replacement CapEx, and site rent have to be deducted. The margin is negative.
At $0.035/kWh, running it costs $2.94. That leaves $8.06. That is a different business.
Why energy cost is the only real moat
Hardware is a commodity. Anyone can buy an S21. Software is open source. The Bitcoin code does not discriminate between operators.
The only variable that sustainably separates Operator A from Operator B is the price per kilowatt-hour. In mining, energy is not a cost line, it is the cost line. In a typical setup it accounts for 75 to 85 percent of ongoing operating expenses.
Anyone sitting on $0.10/kWh is structurally dead. There is no operational improvement that closes this gap.
What the listed miners showed in 2025
The US mining AGs publish their power costs quarterly. The average of the ten largest in 2025 was around $0.055/kWh. Several tipped into negative EBIT margin as soon as the BTC price fell below $80,000.
Capital markets reacted. Three operators with power costs above $0.07 lost between 40 and 60 percent of their share price in 2025. Two were acquired by competitors.
Where we stand
Green Mining produces in Paraguay at energy costs between $0.028 and $0.057 per kilowatt-hour. In 2025 we produced 14.5 BTC, with an EBIT margin of 17.5 percent and an average ROI of 10 percent for our investors.
Our production costs are 25 to 40 percent below the current market price of Bitcoin. That is not luck. That is site selection.
What this means for investors
For an investment in a mining operation, there is exactly one question that matters. What does the operator pay per kilowatt-hour, and over what contract term is that price locked in?
All other questions, hardware generations, geographic diversification, ESG profile, are secondary. If the answer to the first question is above $0.06, the second question is irrelevant.
The outlook for the next halving
In spring 2028 the reward will fall again, from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC per block. Anyone not producing below $0.05/kWh in 2026 will not economically survive the next halving.
We are building accordingly. GM3 in Paraguay is running, GM4 is in planning, both connected to Itaipu hydropower. The logic is not speculative, it is arithmetic.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.